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Posts Tagged ‘budget’

(source: http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/)

This is the planned spending for next year; Welfare spending will be 17% of total spending. £117 billion is the percentage in cash terms and it will only fall by a £1 billion at the end of this Parliament. The coalition has introduced pension, education and health care reform (even though these budgets are set to increase by 2015) to try and control these budgets.

Welfare, too, has seen reforms. Next year, the welfare cap will be introduced and no household will be able to claim over £26,000 a year. Still, it is not enough. In some regions, £26,000 is more than the average income for a working household; but the government seems to be unwilling to regionalise the cap – which is inevitable, to be honest.

Without more reform and, yes, cuts, the current welfare regime will risk becoming insolvent. This scenario would be much worse than the prospect of £10 billion cuts. Politicians, across all parties, need to have a mature debate and the public needs to join in, too.

It is an emotive subject and, of course, protests will occur. But refusal to address this problem now will result in further and more drastic action in the future. That is an outcome we should seek to avoid. We will be selling a false promise if we tell the public the welfare budget is fine and requires no reform.

If we take the populist approach, again, then the public will be horrified when we cut the welfare budget post 2015.

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Seriously, who is advising the Treasury?  It seems the whole entire budget is being reversed by the government, which will create significant forecasting problems for firms and the market in general. In the 26 years of my life I have never witnessed a budget PR disaster worse than this – it is starting to make the Major administration seem less chaotic.

This is the first time the coalition is genuinely vulnerable.

 

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Plan B: The Liberal Option

Cuts will be extending into the next Parliament because the current administration does not have the appetite to cut deeper and at a modest accelerated rate. Current economic data, including this mornings PMI Service number contradicts the media narrative of a failing economy; in fact, the United Kingdom fundamentals are not that bad. However, the government is desperate to exploit low bond yields (which is due to the Bank of England underwriting the market) and push for a Plan A+ or B.

The current alternative includes a package to use the taxpayer to guarantee mortgages and building projects-translation: subprime 2.0-which will, apparently, stimulate real growth and not create a giant credit bubble. But there is no reason why the budget could not be balanced within this Parliament; government, mainly the Liberal Democrats, are unwilling to take the tough measures to do it.

The deficit has to dealt with. It’s not a ‘myth’, which some of the left like to deny. Whilst the cuts are occurring the government needs to rebalance the economy and reform the tax system. Danny and George’s approach should be simple: if it expensive, lacks the required funding and doesn’t work – cut it. If the services will be more cost effective to the taxpayer and more productive – privatise it.

For £20 billion we can drop the basic rate of income tax down to 16p, which is more productive for the economy instead of randomly building roads to nowhere. Expanding the disposable income of low and middle earners should be a requirement for any government. And, whilst on the subject of income tax, the 50p rate should be abolished; it is anti-aspirational, damaging for growth and depicts Britain being against success. It is one of the most illiberal factors within our economy.

The most successful and wealthiest should cease to receive any benefits from the taxpayer. Why should a shelf stacker, on the minimum wage, pay for free TV license and bus pass for a millionaire pensioner? Welfare is for the most poorest and vulnerable, it should not be a universal system which middle and upper classes can access. If you’re in the 40% tax bracket, and need state benefits, then you’re living beyond your means. Which is not the duty of government to correct.

But these are only a few random ideas of mine; I have not even begun to discuss public spending and public sector reforms. That shall be included in my next blog post.

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The European debt crisis is a sign of a much bigger conflict within the European Union. It is a battle for what Europe is and what it should do. And, more importantly, where the power truly rests; Brussels or national governments.

For four long, tedious, blood soaked years in the 1860s, the United States engaged in a brutal internal conflict over slavery and the role of the Federal Government. The years 1861 – 65 unleashed a barbaric tempest of war and destruction; the premise of the conflict asked an innocent question over State sovereignty and rights. The Confederacy declared it was their unalienable right to maintain the institutionalisation of slavery, as a means to provide labour to their cotton industry. Northerners, however, saw slavery as abhorrent, grotesque and against the true spirit of America. The Federal government had the political power to overrule the States.
In April 8, 1864 the Thirteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution prohibited slavery and involuntary servitude. A year later, in 1865, 600,000 people were dead and the American Civil War was over. But what does a conflict, nearly 150 years ago, have to do with the modern European Union? Surprisingly, there is a correlation.

The European debt crisis is the first major internal dilemma for the European Union. It is a test, which will determine whether or not the Union will survive; a similar fate Abraham Lincoln warned about at Gettysburg. There is great uncertainty about the Euro as a currency and the European project as a whole because a default, by either Greece, Ireland, Portugal or Spain, has the potential to destroy the entire European banking system. Decades of stability, prosperity and wealth could vanish if this financial crisis fractured the foundations upon which the new Europe was built on. As Margaret Thatcher once said to the United States Congress, Europe experienced the ‘greatest transformation since the fall of Rome.’ And this new Rome is currently burning.

A solution has been constructed by the European Central Bank; a single economic policy with a Finance Ministry of Europe. To achieve a successful implementation of the ECB plan, Eurozone countries would have to concede economic sovereignty to the European Union. Potentially, this would be the beginning of a United States of Europe. But there is one problem: European citizens hold national pride so dear. I cannot envision the populis of Ireland, Greece or Portugal conceding their national sovereignty to Europe, especially after toxic and political damaging IMF-ECB bailout packages. Ireland was once among the great pro-European citizenry in Europe and now it is the most hostile. There are persistent rumours of Greece leaving the Euro and, potentially, the European Union too. The Treaty of Lisbon concludes any departure from the Eurozone requires succeeding from the Union itself. Commentators play down any significance of a possible member leaving; in 1860, South Carolina left the United States of America. Less than a year later, another ten States followed. Greece could provide the means for others, such as Ireland, to leave as well.

Granted, this is a difficult analogy to make. After all, I’m comparing a military conflict to an economic crisis, but it originates to a central and similar argument. What is the role, or duty, of a continental government? If it is to exist, then it is to exert some authority. When the smoke settled, guns were silenced and the soldiers went home from war, the American people granted their Federal Government the power to administrate the reconstruction of the South. The North not only won the military campaign, but also successful articulated the argument that the final arbiter was, indeed, the Federal Government. However, its actions were required to be benevolent, not oppressive. In the 21st Century, Europe must answer the similar question, when dealing with the sovereignty debt crisis; who truly has the authority to solve the problems?

The European narrative has many chapters in its rich history and many more to come. An American friend of mine once described contemporary Europe as similar to the United States, before the end of the civil war: a continent sure of its destiny, but not on the path of projection. Both Europe and America are experiments; experiments that are routinely tested. The United States could’ve easily ended the civil war within months and recognised the Confederate States, thus sparing hundreds and thousands of lives, but it chose not to. Europe could spare uncertainty in the financial markets by aligning economies and banking systems under a single European umbrella. But is there an European Abraham Lincoln, with the stomach to exert such fortitude and save the European Union? That is the question, which Europe must answer.

Originally hosted at Huffington Post

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£932 billion is the national debt-as of today-of the United Kingdom. We owe £14,819 per every man, women and child and it equates to £32,250 for every person who is currently employed. This year, we will increase the nation debt by £170 billion – taking the grand total to over £1 trillion.

In order to be able to finance and reduce the national debt, reform of the public services and economy are needed. There is no giant money tree. When the state borrows money, it borrows against our savings. You and I are not only associated to the debt, but we are liable for it, too.

Health and education reform are vital to the long term finances of this country, and to the taxpayer. The continuation of the status-quo is a vulnerable path towards generational austerity; a continuous cycle of the same crisis.

Worst policy for the coalition is to keep undermining reform with lightweight legislation. Competition and, yes, private sector capital will be required – the government can no longer afford the cheques. And it is about time we face reality.

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Ed Balls has arrived at a policy; no, not the deficit reduction plan. But an ‘emergency tax cut,’ without naming the tax he aspires to reduce*. In contrast, the Labour party still opposes reducing corporation tax – which aims to levitate businesses across the country.

I do not oppose fiscal stimulus. In fact, I advocate and prefer a low tax economy; helps to create a more productive and lucrative economy. The Treasury requires more avaricious and wealth generating policies, though. Balls is correct on this point.

A few examples for the Chancellor, to provide a fiscal stimulus to the economy;

  1. Reducing the basic rate of Income Tax down to 18p. (once Liberal Democrat tax policy)
  2. Abolishing the top rate.
  3. Or combining National Insurance and Income Tax into a Flat Tax.
  4. Reducing Corporation Tax even further. Down to 18p by 2015.

Flat Tax would bring an enormous benefit to the budget in general , it would discourage any future government from reckless public spending. The Treasury is currently investigating the possibility, but it should consider its introduction in the next budget.

The Adam Smith think thank wrote a Flat Tax proposel in 2007. You can read it here

Corporation Tax, however, would provide an even greater assistance to the economy. Limiting the overall taxation on businesses accumulates more room to invest and create jobs. Which is vital to the economy. We need to articulate a credible plan for reducing the pressure on balance sheets, not impeding them.

George still has plenty of work to do.

 

*When writing this blog, Ed Balls called for an emergency VAT reduction. Which had zero effect before.

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The Treasury will be very pleased this afternoon. ‘Strong fiscal consolidation…remains essential’ is the key message from the International Monetary Fund, which is a direct contradiction of Labour’s position. Ed Balls perpetuated the need for a slower reduction, but the IMF-in its report-advocate a faster tightening, with tax cuts, if slow growth does occur.

Too fast and too deep‘ mantra of the TUC and Labour is officially dead. The opposition needs to mature on economic issues before Ed Miliband finds himself even more isolated. Arguing against this report will be difficult, but Labour are already starting to.

A smart policy, for Labour, would be to call for fiscal loosening on the poorest households in the United Kingdom. The IMF presented this idea in the event of slow growth. Instead, though, the opposition’s economic team are administrating populist policies and rhetoric. Reducing bankers’ bonuses will not liberate the deficit – not even make a dent.

Michael Foot wrote the longest suicide note. Ed Miliband is proceeding with the longest suicide attempt in history.

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Republican Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin is among one of the most undemocratic politicians in the Western World. The manner, in which he is stripping public employees of their collective bargaining rights, would’ve made Franco applaud with admiration. His ‘repair budget’ achieves no real significant means of combating a $3 billion budget short fall, but instead targets political rivals and the opposition bases. Without increasing tax revenue, Walker’s cuts are draconian and depict European austerity as timid. Traditional Democratic voters, supporters and unions are among the worse off under his budget.

Far from very democratic.

Protesters have established ‘Walkerville’, a tent city, in and around the capital grounds to put pressure on the governor to stand down. Sadly, Walker has countermanded bipartisanship and authorised the authorities to use force to expel any dissidents. Including elected officials. And yet, media supporters-such as FoxNews-continue to push GOP propaganda against ‘the enemy within.’ According to Fox, these protesters are ‘Marxists’, ‘extremists’ and ‘trying to destroy American values’ – but what about the great American value of freedom?


Wisconsin is not an isolated incident. Throughout the United States, the GOP is using the fiscal crisis to eliminate all opponents that threaten their agenda. It’s a Trojan horse for the Christian Right and corporations to influence political decisions, which were historically left for the people of America.

President Reagan once championed the defence of collective bargaining rights for Polish unions under Soviet occupation. Yet, he’s GOP children wish to strip Americans of theirs.

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Police use force to disrupt the peaceful Spanish revolution in Barcelona. This YouTube video was e-mailed to me this morning. There have been no reports of violence by individuals representing the camps; these actions are unjustified.

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